bullet  Home  bullet  Services  bullet  Business  bullet  Aviation  bullet  Aviation met. service providers  bullet  

TAF verification

The ability to demonstrate the value and accuracy of meteorological provision is becoming increasingly relevant. The principles and guidance to Quality Management System provision for meteorological service providers are contained in WMO-No. 1001, and are adopted by ICAO Annex 3, para. 2.2. and para. 2.2.4 in particular.

ICAO expects that the Quality Management System (QMS) provisions will be proposed to be upgraded to an ICAO Annex 3 Standard as part of the overall safety management system package (SMS). ICAO considers the implementation of QMS as essential for SMS, and is strongly supported by the ICAO ANC.

It is therefore expected that an Amendment Proposal will be sent to States early 2008 for applicability in 2010.

One part of the overall QMS package will be the requirement to provide evidence of TAF verification (WMO No. 1001 para. 7.4.2. refers). The Met Office has for many years been providing a monthly detailed analysis of its TAFs to the UK Aviation met. authority, the Civil Aviation Authority. The Met Office can provide a similar detailed analysis of the TAF your State produces.

Features

Our complete verification analysis includes the monthly provision of numerical and graphical data for the following features.

  • Individual station SQI score
    This is a measure of the overall value of TAFs over the course of a month.
     
  • Complete miss frequency
    Complete misses correspond to the occurrence of an event when it was not forecast, i.e. forecast with 0% probability of occurrence.
     
  • False-alarm proportion
    This statistic looks at the 100% forecast category only (i.e. certainty for an event to occur).
     
  • Relative bias
    The relative bias is defined as the total number of forecast occurrences of an event, divided by the total observed number of occurrences.
     
  • Reliability tables
    A graphical summary analysis of the results of all individual TAFs over a period of time.
  
Fig. 1: an example of a reliability diagram
Fig. 1: an example of a reliability diagram
 
Fig. 2: an example of a relative bias graph
Fig. 2: an example of a relative bias graph

These can be e-mailed, faxed or posted monthly and are available for any number of TAFs provided by your State.

Further information
Please complete this form to receive a brochure or enquire further about the service.
UK Asia forecast