TAF verification
The ability to demonstrate the value and accuracy of meteorological provision is becoming increasingly relevant to meteorological service providers, meteorological authorities and airlines.
In 2010, the requirement for a Quality Management System (QMS) will be upgraded by ICAO to a Standard in Annex 3. The principles and guidance to QMS provision for meteorological service providers are contained in WMO-No. 1001, and are adopted by ICAO Annex 3 (para. 2.2. and para. 2.2.4).
One part of the overall QMS package will be the requirement to provide evidence of TAF verification (WMO No. 1001 para. 7.4.2. refers). The Met Office has for many years been providing a monthly detailed analysis of its TAFs to the UK Aviation Met. Authority, the Civil Aviation Authority. These are used to measure the accuracy of forecasts and the value for money to users. The Met Office can provide a similar detailed analysis of the TAFs your State produces.
These can be emailed, faxed or posted monthly and are available for any number of TAFs provided by your State.
Features
Our complete verification analysis includes the monthly provision of numerical and graphical data for the following features.
- Individual station SQI score — a measure of the overall value of TAFs over the course of a month.
- Complete miss frequency — corresponding to the occurrence of an event when it was not forecast, i.e. forecast with 0% probability of occurrence.
- False-alarm proportion — looks at the 100% forecast category only (i.e. certainty for an event to occur).
- Relative bias — is defined as the total number of forecast occurrences of an event, divided by the total observed number of occurrences.
- Reliability tables — graphical summary analysis of the results of all individual TAFs over a period of time.
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