Agriculture

Rice fields in Thailand

Yields of cereals crops such as rice and maize could decrease by up to 5% across Southeast Asia. However, this reduction in yield may be a best-case scenario. If crop growth does not respond positively to increased CO2 as expected, then reduction in yield may be as much as 30% or higher.

Other impacts of a 4 °C warming that will affect cereal yields include increased incidence of extreme temperature events (which affects grain production), increased risk of drought and increased potential for saline intrusion on vulnerable coastal agricultural land as a result of sea-level rise. The magnitude of these impacts on cereal productivity is at present not quantified but when accounted for could significantly reduce projections of future yields.

Temperatures

Estimates suggest that a 4 °C rise in temperature (by 2100 under a high end emissions scenario) may reduce cereal crop yields in South East Asia by up to 5% (Parry et al, 2004). However, this assumes that crop yields are positively affected by increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The validity of this assumption has been much debated in the scientific literature (Long et al, 2009). Certainly, if crops are unable to benefit from CO2 fertilization projections of yield decreases are significantly greater; over 30% in some studies (Parry et al, 2004).

In South East Asia, temperatures are already close to the physiological maxima for many crops. Thus, increases in temperature are immediately detrimental, increasing the heat stress on crops and water loss by evaporation. Studies suggest that a 4 °C rise in temperature at low latitudes could reduce maize yields by over 30 % whereas the same temperature increase at low latitudes has a much smaller impact on yield (Easterling et al, 2007). However, uncertainties related to the crop temperature response, in particular the sensitivity of crop yields to temperature, represent a large contribution to climate change uncertainty for most crops and regions.

Rainfall

Patterns of precipitation change are inherently more uncertain than temperature, especially at the regional scale. Any change in available water is likely to impact on crop yields in both rain-fed and irrigated systems (Lobell & Burke, 2008). Drought is a major determinant of global food security and is, even at present, the cause of significant agricultural disasters. In South East Asia, drought risk is expected to increase significantly (Li et al, 2009). Globally, yield reduction rates due to changing drought risk in maize increased by 14 % by 2100.

While the impact of climate change on precipitation will have large impacts on the supply of water, warmer temperatures will increase the evaporation and thus agricultural water demand. As such, irrigation demands in South East Asia are projected to increase; by 15 % in some studies (Döll, 2002).

Extreme weather

Climate change is also expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events. Extreme temperature events can have significant impact on crop yields, especially if they coincide with key developmental phases such as flowering. Maize has been shown to exhibit reduced pollen viability for temperatures above 36 °C.

References

Challinor A.J., T.R. Wheeler, P.Q. Craufurd, J.M. Slingo and D.I.F. Grimes, 2004: Design and optimisation of a large-area process-based model for annual crops. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 124(1-2), 99-120.

Döll, P. ,2002: Impact of climate change and variability on irrigation requirements: A global perspective. Climatic Change 54(3), 269-293.

Easterling, W. E., P. K. Aggarwal, P. Batima, K. M. Brander, L. Erda, S. M. Howden, A. Kirilenko, J. Morton, J.F. Soussana, J. Schmidhuber and F. N. Tubiello, 2007: Food, fibre and forest products. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Eds M. L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. v. d. Linden and C. E. Hanson, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 273-313.

Fischer, G., M. Shah and H. van Velthuizen, 2002: Climate change and agricultural vulnerability. Preprints, World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 160.

Gornall, J., R. Betts, E. Burke, R. Clark, J. Camp, K. Willett and A. Wiltshire, 2010: Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B., 365, 2973-2989.

Li, Y. P., W. Ye, M. Wang and X. D. Yan, 2009: Climate change and drought: a risk assessment of crop-yield impacts. Climate Research 39(1): 31-46.

Lobell, D. B. and M. B. Burke, 2008: Why are agricultural impacts of climate change so uncertain? The importance of temperature relative to precipitation, Environmental Research Letters 3, 1-8.

Long, S. P., E. A. Ainsworth, A. D. B. Leakey and P. B. Morgan, 2009: Global food insecurity. Treatment of major food crops with elevated carbon dioxide or ozone under large-scale fully open-air conditions suggests recent models may have overestimated future yields. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B., 360, 2011-2020.

Monfreda, C., N. Ramankutty, and J. A. Foley, 2008: Geographical distribution of crop areas and yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000. Global biogeochemical cycles. 22, GB 1022.

Osborne, T.O., D.M. Lawrence, A.J. Challinor, J.M. Slingo, T.R. Wheeler, 2007: Development and assessment of a coupled crop-climate model. Global Change Biology, 13, 169-183.

Parry, M.L., C. Rosenzweig, A. Iglesias, M. Livermore and G. Fischer, 2004: Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 14, 53-67.

Last updated: 17 December 2013