Met Office

Tropical cyclones

Under climate change tropical cyclones could be more intense and destructive.

Cyclone

Global population increases, particularly in coastal areas, and sea-level rise mean greater cyclone and hurricane related losses, disruptions to infrastructure and loss of life as a result of storm surges. For major cyclone disasters flooding from storm surges has been the primary cause of death.

Further research needed

Research into the effect of climate change on tropical cyclone activity is inconclusive. Some research suggests that as temperatures increase, tropical cyclones could become more intense, if not more frequent, but not all research supports this. However, even if tropical cyclones don't become more destructive, sea-level rise means impacts due to storm surge flooding at least will increase.

References

Bengtsson, L., K.I. Hodges, M. Esch, N. Keenlyside, L. Kornbleuh, J.-J. Luo, and T. Yamagata, 2007: How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate? Tellus A, 59(4), 539-561.

Emanuel, K., R. Sundararajan, and J. Williams, 2008: Hurricanes and Global Warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89, 347-367.

Easterling, W. E., P. K. Aggarwal, P. Batima, K. M. Brander, L. Erda, S. M. Howden, A. Kirilenko, J. Morton, J.F. Soussana, J. Schmidhuber and F. N. Tubiello, 2007: Food, fibre and forest products. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Eds M. L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. v. d. Linden and C. E. Hanson, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 273-313.

Knutson, T.R., J.L. McBride, J. Chan, K. Emanuel, G. Holland, C. Landsea, I. Held, J.O. Kossin, A.K. Srivastava and M. Sugi, 2010: Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience, 3, 157-163.

Meehl, G.A., T.F. Stocker, W.D. Collins, P. Friedlingstein, A.T. Gaye, J.M. Gregory, A. Kitoh, R. Knutti, J.M. Murphy, A. Noda, S.C.B. Raper, I.G. Watterson, A.J. Weaver and Z.C. Zhao, 2007: Global Climate Projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon, S.,D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 747-846.

Vecchi, G. A., K. L. Swanson and B.J. Soden, 2008: Whither Hurricane Activity?, Science, 322, no 5902, 687-689.

WMO, 2006, Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change (PDF, 253 kB), WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, IWTC-6, San Jose, Costa Rica

Last Updated: 15 September 2011