Health
The subject of health covers a wide variety of issues from heat stress and the relationship between temperature and mortality, to changes in the extent of vector-borne diseases, to the health implications of water scarcity and flooding.
The headlines on the impact of climate change on health were generated from work from a variety of sources. These include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group 2 report, Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, 2007; research at the Met Office Hadley Centre on heat stress, and other published research.
In addition, the IPCC WG2 report has collated a great deal of research about the impacts of climate change on agriculture, and this resource was used to support statements about maize, wheat and rice on the poster.
The Met Office Hadley Centre is undertaking research into climate change and heat stress in particular and below is some information on this.
Heat stress
The European 2003 heatwave was responsible for around 35,000 heat-related deaths. In our present climate, the risk of an event of such a magnitude occurring is thought to have been at least doubled due to anthropogenic influences (Stott et al, 2004). In a future climate where no previous mitigation has taken place, the frequency of such events is likely to increase and this increase could be 100-fold over the next four decades.
Deaths
Heat-related mortality is triggered at different temperatures in different locations/cultures/demographic group depending on acclimatisation, behavioural adaptability (access to air conditioning/water/shade/rest), behaviour (active/stationary) and health.
Western locations
For Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney the present approximate trigger thresholds are thought to be 26 ºC, 28 ºC, 34 ºC, 28 ºC, 24 ºC and 26 ºC. These temperatures are all commonly exceeded during present day summertime leading to heat-related mortality of approximately one to six people per 100,000 per summer (Gosling et al, 2009). Given a global mean temperature rise of 4 ºC, it is foreseeable that heat-related mortality is set to increase considerably, even taking into account possible acclimatisation and adaptation.
There is likely to be considerable future economic impact commercially and nationally due to either loss of productivity due to hotter working environments and the cost of maintaining and adhering to national and international standards as they are brought in of working conditions (Kjellstrom et al. 2008). In countries/industries where standards are not implemented reduced staff productivity and potential for heat-related illness may be detrimental to individual welfare and health. It is foreseeable that importing countries will be affected economically due to the ability/raised cost of the exporting country to maintain productivity and health standards.
Developing world
The World Health Organisation believes that the developing world, including South East Asia, will be disproportionately affected by a changing climate (WHO, 2008) especially if global average temperatures are allowed to rise by 4 °C by 2100.
Wide-ranging - the impacts of climate change on health and well-being will be wide ranging and vary from location to location.
More vulnerable - rising temperatures, sea levels, and changing rainfall patterns could create new, or amplify existing, vulnerabilities - particularly in at-risk populations such as the young, elderly or economically deprived. Those living on islands or in coastal communities, in mountainous regions, cities or in water-stressed environments are already regarded as highly vulnerable to present-day climatic challenges.
South East Asia
Adverse health and well-being impacts of climate change in South East Asia (McMichael et al, 2003, McMichael et al, 2004, WHO, 2010)
Increased water-stress, rising malnutrition, more outbreaks of water- and food-borne diseases and exacerbated acute and chronic diseases - all as a result from rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.
More incidences of heat-related illness, including heat stress, strokes and cardiovascular disorders. City populations may be particularly at-risk from rising temperatures, especially where air quality is already poor.
Vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue, may change in geographical spread and the duration of the transmission seasons could lengthen.
Increased injury and death from more frequent and/or intense extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, tropical storms, river and coastal flooding and droughts. Such events could also lead to a reduction in the psychological well-being of the affected population; and health problems may arise from increasing ozone levels and rising concentrations of air-borne particulate matter, a particular problem in South East Asia cities. A major source of such pollution could be from increasing traditional energy generation alongside more frequent wild-fires.
References
Gosling, S. N., G. R.McGregor, and J. A.Lowe, 2009: Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change. International Journal of Biometeorology, 53, 31-51pp.
Kjellstrom, T., R. S. Kovats, S. J. Lloyd, T. Holt, and R. S. J. Tol, 2008: The direct impact of climate change on regional labour productivity. ESRI, Working Paper No. 260.
Kovats, R.S., D. Campbell-Lendrum, A. McMichael, A. Woodward and J. Cox, 2001: Early effects of climate change: do they in clued changes in vector-borne disease? . Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B., 356, 1057-1068.
Kovas, R. S. and K.L. Ebi, 2006: Heat waves and public health in Europe. Eur. J. Public Health, 16, 592-599. doi:10.1093/eurpub/ck1049
McMichael, A.J., D.H. Campbell-Lendrum, C.F. Corvalan, K.L. Ebi, A.K. Githeko, J.D. Scheraga and A. Woodward, Eds., 2003: Climate Change and Human Health - Risks and Responses, World Health Organization, Geneva, 333 pp.
McMichael,A.J., D. Campbell-Lendrum, S. Kovats, S. Edwards, P.Wilkinson, T. Wilson, R. Nicholls and Co-authors, 2004: Global climate change. Comparative Quantification of Health Risks: Global and Regional Burden of Disease due to Selected Major Risk Factors, M. Ezzati, A. Lopez, A. Rodgers and C. Murray, Eds., World Health Organization, Geneva, 1543-1649.
Stott, P. A., D. A. Stone, and M. R. Allen, 2004: Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature, 432, 610-613pp.
WHO, 2008: Climate Change and Health. Twenty-sixth Meeting of Ministers of Health, New Delhi, India, 8-9 September 2008. Available from Searo
WHO, 2010: Protecting Human Health from Climate Change: Report of the Technical Discussions WHO/SEARO New Delhi, 18-21 August 2009. Available from Searo
