The headlines on sea-level rise were generated from work from a variety of sources.
The Met Office Hadley Centre has conducted a number of research studies looking at sea-level rise in the UK and Europe. This includes work done as part of the TE2100 project which looked at sea-level rise and the resilience of the Thames barrier.
In addition, the IPCC WG2 report has collated research about the impacts sea-level rise.
Finally, specific research was done by Prof. Robert Nicholls and Dr Sally Brown at Southampton University and Dr Jochen Hinkel at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research, looking at the affect on human populations of sea-level rise.
|GVA Regions||2050/0.48 m||2075/0.53 m||2100/0.59 m|
|Africa Atlantic Ocean||6135||6564||5866|
|Africa Indian Ocean||7884||8364||7353|
|Asia Indian Ocean||45385||55527||55074|
|Atlantic Ocean Small||67||112||100|
|Baltic Sea coast||350||430||475|
|Central America Atlantic Ocean||89||91||83|
|Central America Pacific Ocean||173||171||154|
|Coasts of the CIS||706||844||959|
|East Asia Coast||24542||24610||22392|
|Indian Ocean Small Islands||313||311||258|
|North America Atlantic Ocean||909||1701||2663|
|North America Pacific Ocean||851||1581||2223|
|North and West European Coast||560||822||1792|
|Pacific Ocean large||309||461||717|
|Pacific Ocean small||529||537||506|
|South America Atlantic Ocean||4600||6149||6681|
|South America Pacific Ocean||1511||1467||1266|
|South East Asia Coast||28753||32740||28165|
|Southern Atlantic Small islands||0||0||0|
Numbers were based on extreme sea levels under a 4 degree rise in temperature and the A1B socio-economic scenario. Research was undertaken by Dr Sally Brown and Prof. Robert J Nicholls(School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, UK), Dr Jason Lowe (Met Office) and Dr Jochen Hinkel ( Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
These results are based on QUEST-GSI research. Sea-level data is from the A1B ensemble mean MAGICC scenario. Prescribed datasets have been made based on 0.5°C-4.0°C increase in 2050 at 0.5°C increments. The number of people additionally flooded due to storm surges is modelled using DIVA (McFadden et al. 2007; Vafeidis et al. 2008) which combines sea-level and socio-economic scenarios.
Data is reported in GVA regions, example of a map below.
Brown, S. et al. (2009). Sea level response and impacts of a 1°C to 7°C prescribed temperature rise by 2100. 4 degrees and beyond. International climate conference, Oxford, UK. September 2009.
Gregory J.M. and P. Huybrechts, 2006: Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change. Phil Trans R. Soc A, 364,1709-1731.
Lowe, J.A., and J.M. Gregory, 2005: The effects of climate change on storm surges around the United Kingdom. Phil. Trans. R. Soc A, 363, 1313-1328.
McFadden, L., R.J. Nicholls, A. Vafeidis and R.S.J. Tol, 2007: A methodology for modelling coastal space for global assessment. Journal of Coastal Research, 23, (4), 911-920.
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, 2009: Climate change, sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam .
Nicholls, R.J. and A. Cazenave, 2010: Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones. Science, 328, 1517-1520.
Nicholls, R.J., and R.J.T. Klein, 2005: Climate change and coastal management on Europe's coast. Managing European Coasts: Past, Present and Future, J.E. Vermaat, L. Vouwer, K. Turner and W. Salomons, Eds., Springer, Environmental Science Monograph Serices. 199-226.
Nicholls, R.J., N. Marinova, J.A. Lowe, S. Brown, P. Vellinga, D. de Gusmao, J. Hinkel, and R.S.J. Tol, 2011: Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a 'beyond 4 ºC world' in the twenty-first century. Phil. Trans. R. Soc A, 369, 161-181.
Ridley J, J.M. Gregory, P. Huybrechts and J. Lowe, 2009: Thresholds for irreversible decline of the Greenland ice sheet. Climate Dynamics 35, Number 6, 1049-1057, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0646-0.
Phienwej, N. and P. Nutalaya, 2005: Subsidence and Flooding in Bangkok. In: Gupta, A. (ed.) The Physical Geography of Southeast Asia. Oxford University Press, 358-379 pp.
Vafeidis, A.T., R. J. Nicholls, L. McFadden, R. S. J. Tol, J. Hinkel, T. Spencer, P.S. Grashoff, G.Boot, and R.J. T. Klein, 2008: A new global coastal database for impact and vulnerability analysis to sea-level rise. Journal of Coastal Research, 24, 917-924.
Vaughan DG, 2008: West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse - the fall and rise of a paradigm. Climatic Change, 91, 65-79, DOI 10.1007/s10584-008-9448-3.
Last updated: 17 December 2013