Monthly to decadal prediction

This concerns the area between short-term weather forecasts and long-term climate projections

The monthly to decadal team assesses the risk and impact of extreme weather events from months to years ahead.

Recent advances in research and the development of powerful new modelling systems have increased the capabilities of our monthly to decadal team, whose forecasts have a range of uses throughout the world. Their work concerns the area between short-term weather forecasts and long-term climate projections.

This specialist group carries out scientific research to understand climate variability and predictability, and develops projections based on the Unified Model used across many timescales for Met Office forecasting. Government departments, businesses and international bodies such as the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) consult our scientists for detailed forecasts as a risk-assessment measure.

The Met Office's decadal prediction system (DePreSys) is the first in the world. Our seasonal forecast system relies on our new high-resolution climate model, HadGEM3-H, and shows new levels of expertise in predicting winter surface climate. The monthly to decadal team is led by Professor Adam Scaife. Adam has 20 years of experience in atmospheric modelling. He co-chairs the international Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction and has been awarded academic prizes such as the 2011 Lloyd's of London annual prize for the Science of Risk in Climate Change.

Providing reliable climate projections on regional and local, seasonal and decadal scales is a complex scientific challenge that the Met Office is in a unique position to meet. Our weather forecasting and climate research teams work under the same roof, using the same science and modelling systems.

As a Trading Fund, the Met Office has a deep understanding of its customers' needs across the public and private sectors and around the world. We explore the impacts of environmental change to enable others to make informed decisions.

And because of the uniquely close relationship between our weather and climate science and our forecasting services, advances in our science are almost immediately apparent in the products we offer.

In the following article Professor Adam Scaife talks about piecing together the UK climate puzzle: Climate jigsaw puzzle

Last updated: 17 December 2013

Video: Long-term climate forecasting
Richard Jones, Manager of Regional Predictions, explains long term climate forecasting