'What is dangerous climate change?' the AVOID2 programme examines this question and is providing integrated research to support and inform international science policy in the lead up to the COP21 meeting in Paris later this year.
The programme, started in January 2014, aims to answer three key questions:
1. what levels of climate change are potentially dangerous?
2. what emissions and development pathways will avoid 'dangerous' climate change?
3. what is the feasibility of such pathways?
AVOID2 draws on established scientific research and focuses on the feasibility of mitigation and economic impacts. The programme adopts a new 'matrix' approach to assessment which allows (within limits) any combination of climate and socio-economic scenarios, and also bases its socio-economic assumptions on the new Shared Socio-Economic Pathways which are characterised in terms of challenges to both adaptation and mitigation.
AVOID2 is a consortium comprising the Met Office, Grantham Institute at Imperial College, the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, and the Walker Institute for Climate System Research.
The programme is led by the Met Office and consists of six work packages, A-F:
Work Package A
This Work Package is led by the Met Office and examines the link between emissions pathways and climate outcomes. This Work Package focuses on the feasibility of limiting climate change to a range of global average near surface warming levels ranging from 1.5°C to 4°C over this century.
Work Package B
Work Package B is jointly led by the Walker Institute and the Tyndall Centre. It looks at the impacts of climate change in different systems and sectors, under a number of different emissions scenarios, over a range of timescales. It also outlines certain impacts that can be avoided through mitigation.
Work Package C
Led by the Grantham Institute, this Work Package is concerned with the feasibility of mitigation pathways and is linked to the research in WPA.
Work Package D
Led by the Met Office, this Work Package examines different levels of negative emissions by simulating BECCs in an Earth System climate model, and this research is also linked to Work Packages A and C.
Work Package E
This Work Package assesses greenhouse gas emissions from changes in lands use and forestry, and is led by the Tyndall Centre. The results from this Work Package also inform the emissions scenarios developed in Work Package A.
Work Package F
Jointly led by the Met Office and the Tyndall Centre, this Work Package examines the economic risks associated with climate change and is linked with the climate change impacts work in Work Package B.
Last updated: 2 April 2015