UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) business advice

Climate change risk assessment for large infrastructure

Aim: To illustrate our risk assessment framework, which is used to assess and quantify the risks of climate change impacts. This is a flexible system incorporating our expert climate knowledge, detailed understanding of the industry concerned and UKCP09’s probabilistic projections.

Stage 1: Weather and climate sensitivity table

Weather and climate sensitivity matrices help identify hazardous events which can be caused or exacerbated by climate change. For example, in the table below, events that are hazardous to rail infrastructure include flooding and extreme heat. These are affected by rainfall and temperature respectively.

Table showing how hazardous events may be affected by changes in our climate

	Temperature	Rainfall	Snowfall	Soil moisture	Storm surge	Sea level
Flooding
Extreme heat
Storminess
Subsidence
Ice/snow

Stage 2: Hazard maps

Hazard maps show the likelihood of a hazardous event occurring. Below are example hazard maps (created using UKCP09 data) showing changes in temperature to the warmest day in summer for the 2080s using low, medium and high emission scenarios. These maps illustrate that warmest day temperature is likely to increase from 2 to 8 °C, depending on the emissions scenario. We would compare these maps with current temperatures in order to quantify how rail infrastructure could be affected in the 2080s (e.g. increased number of rails buckling). Overlaying the rail network (in black) identifies areas of vulnerability; in this case South East England which has both higher temperatures and greater infrastructure.

Hazard maps can be customised further to give a more complete view of the risks. Additional information could include overlaying the likelihood of other hazardous events, or identifying those areas of highest exposure by highlighting the most frequent services. A combination of all this information can provide an index of total and priority risk.

Stage 3: Asset management/risk control

Stages 1 and 2 identify which assets are at risk. The final stage is to investigate how different adaptation options will affect the risk to determine the best adaptation strategy for the industry. At every stage of the risk assessment the Met Office will work in close collaboration with the industry to ensure their needs are met.

How may extreme weather change in the future?

Aim: To show how we can assess whether the severity and frequency of extreme weather may change in the future. This work would incorporate a range of UKCP09 future climate projections and a statistical method known as extreme value analysis (EVA).

What are extreme events?

These are high impact events which happen infrequently. They are regularly described in terms of how often they are likely to happen, for example a ‘one in 30 year flooding event’ means it will happen on average once every 30 years. There are many industries (insurance, transport, local authorities) which must take these events into consideration, due to the damage and disruption they can cause. 

What information will UKCP09 provide?

UKCP09 provides estimates of how the following elements will change in the future:

• Temperature of the coolest day/night
• Temperature of the warmest day/night
• Rainfall on the wettest day

How can Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) help?

We can use EVA, together with regional climate computer models, to assess how the frequency and severity of extreme events may change in the future. This information can be used when planning future infrastructure — for example ensuring adequate drainage on roads or future proofing public buildings to withstand increased hot spells.

In the example below, we have calculated the amount of rain (mm) that falls for a 1 in 30 year event for 1960–1991 (left-hand plot), 2070–2090 (middle plot) and the difference (right-hand plot).  For the UK, the simulations project the amount of rainfall for a 1 in 30 year event will increase by between 1 and 15 mm (on average), but for parts of western Scotland, England and Wales, this increase could be as much as 30 to 40 mm.

This example illustrates how the severity of extreme events may change in the future; we can apply a similar analysis to illustrate how their frequency may change as well.

Climate change and the urban environment

Aim: To show how towns and cities influence local climate using UKCP09 data and the latest research from the Met Office.

How towns and cities influence their local climate.

Towns and cities significantly influence their local climate. Buildings and roads store heat during the day and release it at night. In addition, human activity — e.g. heating and cooling of buildings, traffic — leads to higher temperatures in towns and cities compared to more rural areas. When assessing the risk to businesses from climate change, it is important to consider any additional impacts due to the urban environment. The following table shows some of the potential consequences of climate change in urban areas.

Change in local climate	Affect	Result
Higher temperatures	People become more stressed by the heat	Greater demand for air conditioning and refrigeration Greater demand for water Increased demand on health services due to heat related problems e.g. heat stress and respiratory illnesses Closure of schools and offices
	Damage to transportation infrastructure e.g. roads melting and rail tracks buckling	Restrictions imposed on use of transportation infrastructure e.g. closure of underground systems, closure of roads or speed restrictions imposed

Using UKCP09 data

UKCP09 data does not include the impact of urban heating on the local environment. However, by using the latest research from the Met Office (see plots below), this information can be overlaid on temperature maps from UKCP09.

Targeting business vulnerabilities in the urban climate

If urban heat areas are ignored the frequency of extreme events in the future will be severely underestimated. The Met Office will work in close collaboration with your business to identify potential business vulnerabilities within urban areas under climate change. Where vulnerabilities exist, we can show how different adaption schemes will affect your business.