UK Climate Projections case studies
As a world leader in climate services, the Met Office’s expertise has played a key role in creating the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09), as well as the UK Climate Impacts Programme 2002 (UKCIP02). We have already set about applying this information to advise government, businesses, and individuals on how to prepare and adapt for the future. There are some examples of our work below.
For more information on how climate change may affect your business please email: consulting@metoffice.gov.uk
Transport
Impacts on road transport
What is the risk?
The road network is susceptible to the weather — from extreme temperatures melting roads, to heavy rainfall leading to flooding. The Highways Agency wanted to know how the road infrastructure could be affected by climate change.
What have we done?
The Met Office worked with engineers from the Highways Agency to advise on areas where they may need to focus their attention in meeting the challenges of climate change.
What’s the conclusion?
Following our advice, the agency was able to identify extreme heat and heavy rainfall as the areas of greatest concern. They are now using this information, including the latest climate impacts data, to adapt planning activity to deal with storm water management and possible road surface melting.
Impacts on the rail industry
What is the risk?
Climate change poses many potential issues for the rail industry, as infrastructure and services could be affected by higher temperatures and the potential for more extreme weather. The Rail Safety Standards Board (RSSB) wanted to know more about how climate change could impact the industry.
What have we done?
We looked at how the rail network could be affected by a range of issues from climate change, including summer heatwaves, heavy rainfall, rising sea levels, and storms. By looking at all the potential issues we put together a package of advice on which parts of the service were most vulnerable and ways in which the industry can start planning for the future.
What’s the conclusion?
By providing data on the expected changes in the climate, we were able to give the RSSB guidance on areas of the infrastructure they will need to focus on in the future. This included looking at how sea-level rises and more storms, bringing bigger waves and storm surges, could affect the viability of existing and planned coastal lines. This allows the RSSB to make informed decisions about early adaptation measures.
Energy
Impacts on the UK energy industry
What is the risk?
A changing climate could effect the generation and transportation of energy, not to mention the way we use it. Key UK energy companies needed guidance on how they can prepare for the threats and opportunities ahead.
What have we done?
Using our climate models to assess future temperature increases, we looked at how this could effect all aspects of the energy industry. This included factoring in issues such as the affect of heat on the efficiency of thermal power stations. We also studied the potential changes in demand as our seasons are altered under climate change — such as an expected shift in peak power demand to the summer as people rely more on air conditioning.
What’s the conclusion?
The majority of the energy infrastructure is already fit to meet the challenges of a changing climate. However, within the next ten years temperature rises are expected to affect energy demand in the summer. There will also be a need to adapt technology to the future climate, especially when redesigning or building new power plants. Following our report, Energy and Climate Change Minister, Mike O’Brien, said:
“Energy infrastructure is costly and can have a life span of 40 or more years, so it’s a smart move for the energy industry to seek the expert advice of the Met Office Hadley Centre. This will help anticipate the potential impacts of climate change and allow the industry to future-proof what it builds in the coming years.”
Energy industry set for climate change
Impacts on small-scale wind power generation
What is the risk?
Using wind power generation effectively is one way to cut carbon emissions and help limit the impact of climate change. Homes and businesses can do this by using small-scale turbines, but to be cost effective and beneficial for the environment they must be in the right place. The Carbon Trust wanted to produce a tool to help people and businesses find out if they are in an appropriate spot for a turbine.
What have we done?
We worked with the Carbon Trust to provide detailed information on wind strength and consistency across the UK. This was then mapped into locations to take account of local geography, the height of turbines, and other issues which may affect wind strength.
What’s the conclusion?
The information was turned into a web tool which allows users to put in a few simple details, such as postcode and turbine height, to find out if a turbine is viable for where they live/work. This empowers people to make informed decisions about whether wind power generation is right for them.
Water
Impacts on the water industry
What is the risk?
Information from UKCIP02 showed there may be significant changes in rainfall patterns under climate change. Anglian Water wanted to know how this could affect their systems, including their sewage and storm drain networks.
What have we done?
We analysed a range of forecasts to see how precipitation could be affected. We looked at best and worst case scenarios to see what the risks were in key areas for Anglian Water.
What’s the conclusion?
Our research showed the Anglian region will be subject to more extreme levels of rainfall under climate change. The company is now using this data to adapt their sewerage network towards new design standards, increasing the capacity for dealing with heavy rainfall. Similar changes in rainfall can be expected across many other parts of the UK as our climate changes, and the latest data from UKCP09 will provide even greater advice across the whole utilities sector.
Public sector
Impacts on social welfare
What is the risk?
The Met Office was asked to identify how climate change could affect the work carried out by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), including how both the department and the services it provides may be affected.
What have we done?
By looking at all aspects of the department’s work in conjunction with the anticipated effects of climate change, we ascertained the overall sensitivity of the department to the issues.
Identifying the impacts of climate change on the Department for Work and Pensions
What’s the conclusion?
We delivered a package of recommendations on which parts of DWP policy and services required high priority action to prepare for climate change. For example, grants are given to vulnerable people to help with heating costs in particularly cold weather. In the future, hot-weather payments may be needed to contribute to air-conditioning costs. Our advice provided a clear understanding of how climate change may affect the work of the DWP, highlighting areas where it should focus attention for policy changes.
Impacts on defence and global security
What is the risk?
Climate change has the potential to affect the scale and frequency of a range of humanitarian problems, such as flooding, drought and famine. This raises important issues in terms of international aid and world politics. Changes could also affect troops on the ground anywhere in the world. The Ministry of Defence wanted to know how the changing climate could affect their operations.
What have we done?
We used our models of future climate changes to assess the humanitarian risks posed all over the world. This included looking at factors such as crop growth, access to fresh water, intense heat, and extreme weather. We also looked at issues of heat stress amongst troops and how they may need to adapt equipment to meet these challenges.
Effects on the developing world
What’s the conclusion?
Our advice was used to assess what issues could arise around the world from climate change, such as political tension from competition for resources or mass migration. We also gave advice on how climate change could affect troops on the ground. This helps the military plan how to develop its capabilities and capacities in the future.
Rural
Impacts on animal disease
What is the risk?
Many viruses affecting animals, such as bluetongue, are spread by vectors — insects whose movements are affected by wind, temperature and precipitation. Other diseases are airborne, such as foot-and-mouth, meaning their spread is also affected by weather conditions. A changing climate will affect when and where such viruses and diseases spread, potentially exposing the UK to new or increased risks of infection.
What have we done?
We have created sophisticated dispersion models which aim to forecast the potential spread of diseases or viruses based on weather. The models are being continually refined to improve their accuracy.
What’s the conclusion?
Our forecasts have already been used by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) during foot-and-mouth and bluetongue outbreaks. Selective vaccination of livestock in areas pinpointed by Met Office forecasts is estimated to have saved nearly £500 million, together with 10,000 jobs. We are also advising on how climate change will impact the frequency of such outbreaks in the future, helping people to start adapting to potential issues now.
Coastline
Impacts on the Thames Barrier
What is the risk?
Sea-level rises, increased river flows and more-frequent, more-intense storm surges are all possible effects of climate change. This poses potential flooding risks to several areas of the UK, particularly along the Thames Estuary. The Environment Agency wanted to know whether the Thames Barrier could cope with future extreme weather events, such as surges from the North Sea.
What have we done?
Using our cutting edge climate modelling, we forecast possible sea-level changes, predicted the intensity and frequency of storm surges, and how changes in rainfall could affect river flows up to the year 2100. This information formed the basis for simulated floods of the Thames Estuary, looking at how defences would cope with severe weather events.
Thames Estuary 2100 Project (TE2100), June 2008
What’s the conclusion?
During the simulations, the Thames Barrier proved strong enough to cope, despite the testing conditions. The defences offer unparalleled protection against North Sea tidal surges and hold back high tides when the river is swollen by heavy rainfall upstream. This information will inform the Environment Agency in planning future repairs and any necessary alterations to the barrier.
Impacts on critical national infrastructure
What is the risk?
British Energy (BE) wanted to know if climate change could affect the UK’s network of power stations, particularly those on the coasts which may be vulnerable to sea-level rise. We were asked to specifically look at nuclear power stations.
What have we done?
Our models project a range of sea-level-rise scenarios based on a number of variables. We looked at best and worst case forecasts, as well as the most likely outcome to establish the levels of risk to all of the UK’s power stations.
What’s the conclusion?
Our research suggests that, by 2100, storm surge heights may increase dramatically — by up to 1.7 metres in the most affected areas of Suffolk, where the Sizewell B nuclear power plant is located. Based on this advice, BE is developing a long-term strategy for its sites. David Norfolk, from BE's strategy team, said at the time:
"We understand the importance of climate change, and we're committed to environmental responsibility. That is why this study is important in keeping our knowledge of the potential impacts on our sites fully up to date. Although considerable rises in sea level are predicted by the end of the century in the most severe scenario, a mix of measures including coastal defences, flood protection and plant design would ensure our sites are well-protected from the effects of sea-level rises."
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