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3 February 2005
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How much more does the climate have to change before
it becomes 'dangerous'?
This was one subject under discussion at the
Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter, where an international
scientific symposium on climate change has now drawn to
a close.
Themes debated during the three-day Avoiding
Dangerous Climate Change conference ranged from the
socio-economic effects of climate change to the vulnerability
of eco-systems, but three areas in particular caught delegates'
attention:
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Antarctica awakens
Prof Chris Rapley CBE, Director of the British Antarctic
Survey, presented new data-based results that cast further
doubts on the stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet.
He claimed that the melting of the ice shelves, such as
Larsen B which has been continuously present since the last
ice-age, may be leading to a speed up of some glaciers in
a 'cork out of bottle' effect, and advised that these processes
need to be incorporated in advanced ice-sheet models.
The flood of refugees
Papers presented by IPCC's Martin Parry, Yuri Izrael from
the Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, and other speakers
during the Impacts Overview session, illustrated from different
perspectives that the consequences of climate change vary
with scale, from global to community level, and between
regions.
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They claimed that as climate changes, societies will also
be changing, and the flood of refugees out of some parts
of the world could be significant. New technologies are
likely to emerge, new discoveries will be made and population
shifts are bound to occur. Forecasting such changes is extremely
difficult but climate change impacts analyses must take
into account changes to societies and how they will adapt.
Dennis Tirpak, Geoff Jenkins and Cinzia Losenno pull
together the steering committee's report
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Species extinction
John Lanchbery, from the Royal Society for the Protection
of Birds, argued that, on the basis of ecological effects
and the observed inability of some natural ecosystems to adapt,
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases can be considered
to be already too high.
He pointed out alterations to species ranges, ecosystem
loss and the unpredictability of subsequent impacts arising
from changes in one key species. He highlighted work in
the North Sea on seabird populations, and noted that climate
impacts on plankton abundance may have resulted in a substantial
reduction in sandeel numbers - a key feed species for many
seabirds. This shortage has been independently indicated
by Danish sandeel fisheries where 2003/4 catches were half
the typical catch.
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Organised by the Department
for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), the conference
set out to advance the scientific understanding of the long-term
implications of climate change, the relevance of stabilisation goals
and options to reach such goals. It also aimed to encourage research
and international scientific debate on these issues.
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At the close of the conference, Margaret Beckett, Secretary
of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, said: "I
would like to say how very pleased I am with the way the conference
has been organised by the Met Office, and the large presence
of some of the most eminent climate change scientists from
around the globe. I hope that this conference will be seen
as a milestone in building international consensus on climate
change." |
Details of the speakers and papers being presented and the report
of the steering committee can be found at the Avoiding
Dangerous Climate Change Conference web site.
Download
Avoiding dangerous climate change brochure (PDF, 889 kb)
| For further information: |
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| E-mail: pressoffice@metoffice.gov.uk |
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