In September 2005, the Met Office made predictions about the
coming winter. The final figures are now in for the months of
December 2005 through to February 2006 and it is now possible
to assess the winter of 2005/6.
In summary; Europe has experienced below-average temperatures
over a wide area through the winter 2005/6. The winter has been
very dry across the whole of the UK, warmer-than-average in the
north, colder-than-average in the south.
In the original forecast there were five main issues that it
is now possible to verify. It can be said that in four out of
these five cases, the predicted most likely event happened:
WINTER REVIEW
Prediction
Outcome
Mean temperature across Europe
Most
likely colder than average
Colder
than average for many areas
UK mean temperature
Most
likely colder than average
Warmer
than average
Southern UK mean temperature
Most
likely colder than average
Colder
than average
UK precipitation
Most
likely drier than average
Drier
than average
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
for the winter season
Negative
Negative
Europe has experienced below-average temperatures over a wide
area through the winter 2005/6, including southern parts of
the UK. This is the outcome we predicted was most likely
Northern parts of the UK did not follow the outcome we predicted
as being most likely, and had a mild winter
The UK as a whole experienced a slightly warmer-than-average
winter, but which was still the coldest since 2000/1
England has had a colder-than-average winter - the coldest
since 1996/7
Wales has had a colder-than-average winter - the coldest since
1996/7
The coldest region relative to the long-term (30-year) average
was southern England, at 0.4 °C below normal; the coldest
since 1996/7
Scotland and Northern Ireland had a mean temperature above
normal (0.77 and 0.48 °C respectively), which continued
a run of five mild winters for these parts of the UK
The average of this winter's Central England Temperature (the
longest existing temperature record in the world), was below
the average for 1971-2000
