The winter of 2006/7 for the UK is likely to be milder than the
long-term average and wetter than the country experienced last
winter, say Met Office long-range forecasters.
Each June, the sea-surface temperature pattern in the North Atlantic
gives a hint of what type of weather may predominate across Europe
the following winter. Following a period of gathering and assessing
this data, Met Office experts are now in a position to give an
early indication of what type of winter we might expect.
The Met Office uses a statistical method and a number of global
forecasting models to provide information on the outlook for the
winter. At this stage, only the statistical method is available,
so this is just a first look at the prospects. This first look
at winter is useful for those involved in longer-range contingency
planning, for example, water and energy companies, health service
and transport sector planners.
Our first official forecast for the winter will be issued in
September, when information from other forecast models becomes
available.
Early indications for Winter 2006/7
(December, January and February)
Temperature
The signal from the statistical method is for near- or above-normal
temperatures across Europe this winter. This signal is not
particularly strong, but statistically the method offers
good advice on two out of three occasions in predicting
whether the seasonal average temperature will be above or
below the long-term average. This implies that southern
areas of the UK (where last year it was coldest relative
to the long-term average), are likely to experience a milder
season than last winter, although of course this does not
rule out occasional cold snaps and snow. For northern Britain,
a mild winter is signalled.
Precipitation
Last winter saw much drier-than-average conditions across
nearly all parts of the UK - much as last autumn's forecast
had suggested. In the south-east this was the continuation
of a long period of dry weather starting in November 2004.
Early indications are that this coming winter is likely
to be wetter over the UK than last year.
The atmosphere and ocean are dynamic systems and the nature of
the information they give can change with time. Further assessments
of the available scientific evidence will be made through the
summer and autumn months and updated statements issued as necessary,
beginning with our first official forecast in September.
Notes:
The winter months, as defined by the Met Office for climatological
purposes, are Dec-Feb (inclusive). Of course winter weather can
extend beyond this period.
The long-term average figures for winter for the UK are:
