Hard on the heels of Prof. Sir Nicholas Stern's report into
the economic cost of climate change, Met Office Hadley Centre
scientists are in Nairobi to meet colleagues from around the
world to discuss recent research.
Dr Vicky Pope will present the latest results of research based
on Met Office Hadley Centre models to a side event at the annual
UN conference on Monday 13 November.
One area of the Met Office's work this year has been to investigate
the impacts of climate change on developing countries, where
worldwide damage to the environment could be most acutely felt.
A report titled Effects of climate change on developing countries
summarises these findings.
Reiterating findings published last month, Dr Pope will highlight
the likely major increases in the areas affected by drought
right across the globe. Extreme drought is likely to increase
from under 3% of the globe today to 30% by 2100 - areas affected
by severe drought could see a five-fold increase from 8% to
40%.
However, she will also point out that there are some likely
positive effects of climate change; for example, reduced drought
and potential increased crop yield in a limited number of places.
Many of the detailed results were produced by scientists from
around the world using PRECIS, a regional climate modelling
system developed by the Met Office to run on personal computers.
Over 190 users in more than 60 countries currently use the system.
More work is needed though to fully evaluate the regional and
local implications of climate change so that overseas relief,
for example, can be targeted to help developing countries adapt
and mitigate.
The briefing will also report on how recent increases in vegetation
fires related to human activity are leading to more emissions
of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
The Met Office Hadley Centre is one of the world's leading climate
centres.
The Met Office is the UK's national weather service, providing
24x7 world-renowned scientific excellence in weather, climate
and environmental forecasts and severe weather warnings for
the protection of life and property. Met Office data and services
are used by other government departments and agencies; the
private sector and the public.
Science is, by its very nature, international and we actively
engage in partnerships and collaborations.
Evaluation of regional impacts are based on results from
research from the Met Office and others, including the Walker
Institute at Reading University.
Dr Vicky Pope is Head of the Climate Programme at the Met
Office Hadley Centre. She will also be presenting some
background on Met Office Hadley Centre science used in the Stern report
at the Stern side event.
The twelfth annual Conference of the Parties (COP) is being
held in Nairobi from 6 to 17 November 2006 as part of the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
