News release

13 November 2006

Hard on the heels of Prof. Sir Nicholas Stern's report into the economic cost of climate change, Met Office Hadley Centre scientists are in Nairobi to meet colleagues from around the world to discuss recent research.

Dr Vicky Pope will present the latest results of research based on Met Office Hadley Centre models to a side event at the annual UN conference on Monday 13 November.

One area of the Met Office's work this year has been to investigate the impacts of climate change on developing countries, where worldwide damage to the environment could be most acutely felt. A report titled Effects of climate change on developing countries summarises these findings.

Reiterating findings published last month, Dr Pope will highlight the likely major increases in the areas affected by drought right across the globe. Extreme drought is likely to increase from under 3% of the globe today to 30% by 2100 - areas affected by severe drought could see a five-fold increase from 8% to 40%.

However, she will also point out that there are some likely positive effects of climate change; for example, reduced drought and potential increased crop yield in a limited number of places.

Many of the detailed results were produced by scientists from around the world using PRECIS, a regional climate modelling system developed by the Met Office to run on personal computers. Over 190 users in more than 60 countries currently use the system.

More work is needed though to fully evaluate the regional and local implications of climate change so that overseas relief, for example, can be targeted to help developing countries adapt and mitigate.

The briefing will also report on how recent increases in vegetation fires related to human activity are leading to more emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

Download the Met Office Hadley Centre report, Effects of climate change in developing countries (pdf, 1.05 Mb)

Notes

• The Met Office Hadley Centre is one of the world's leading climate centres.
• The Met Office is the UK's national weather service, providing 24x7 world-renowned scientific excellence in weather, climate and environmental forecasts and severe weather warnings for the protection of life and property. Met Office data and services are used by other government departments and agencies; the private sector and the public.
• Science is, by its very nature, international and we actively engage in partnerships and collaborations.
• Evaluation of regional impacts are based on results from research from the Met Office and others, including the Walker Institute at Reading University.
• Dr Vicky Pope is Head of the Climate Programme at the Met Office Hadley Centre. She will also be presenting some background on Met Office Hadley Centre science used in the Stern report at the Stern side event.
• The twelfth annual Conference of the Parties (COP) is being held in Nairobi from 6 to 17 November 2006 as part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.