Met Office to unveil new Atlantic tropical storm forecast
The Met Office will unveil its new Atlantic tropical storm frequency forecast for the 2007 season at 9 a.m. on Tuesday 19 June at Lloyds of London.
This unique Met Office forecast, the only one in the world produced using global climate models, has proven to provide unparalleled accuracy and advice in trials during 2005 and 2006. In both these years the Met Office forecast outperformed more-traditional methods based on historical analysis alone.
Rob Varley, Head of the Public Weather Service says: "The Met Office has been providing seasonal forecasts for the UK successfully for several years and the tropical storm forecast is the next step. The development of the tropical storm forecast will help the UK government protect the interests of its citizens and businesses abroad."
Matt Huddleston, Met Office Principal Consultant on climate change says: "This is the first time the Met Office’s world-leading climate model has been used to predict the number of tropical storms, taking into account the impacts of the ocean and atmosphere. This ground-breaking science, linking climate change to forecasts of tropical storms, will enable us to continue to develop a portfolio of forecasts that help people and businesses adapt to both the natural and human-induced changes to our climate."
The Met Office has the scientific expertise and technological capability to forecast tropical storms and hurricanes ranging from individual short-range track and landfall projections through to activity on a seasonal timescale.
Notes to editors:
- The Met Office Public Weather Service is supporting a basic tropical storm frequency forecast for the Atlantic’s June-November season.
- The Met Office’s short-range weather model gives some of the best advice on hurricane track and landfall. It forecast the landfall of Katrina a full 12 hours ahead of any other model, and track errors have decreased year on year.
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| E-mail: pressoffice@metoffice.gov.uk |
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