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16 April 2002
New scenarios of how UK climate might change over the course of
the century are being launched today (16 April 2002) by Margaret
Beckett, Secretary of State for the Environment, Food and Rural
Affairs. The scenarios are based on predictions which were specially
undertaken by the Met Office Hadley
Centre. They show changes in much more detail
than has been available previously, as they have been produced
using the Met Office Hadley Centre's new regional climate model
with a resolution of 50 km.
Extensive analyses of the results from the model have been carried
out by the Met Office Hadley Centre and the Tyndall Centre at UEA
Norwich. Shown below are changes in precipitation and temperature,
by the 2080s, for summer and winter seasons. Winter rainfall is
predicted to increase by up to 30%, particularly in the south,
with the potential for a greater incidence of flooding, but summer
rainfall could decrease by up to 50%, again particularly in the
south, threatening water supplies. These changes are more extreme
than in previous scenarios. Sea level will rise, leading to a much
greater frequency of high water levels from storm surges on some
coasts. Changes in extremes are also analysed; for example, days
of heavy rainfall are predicted to increase in winter.
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| Figure caption: Change in average summer and winter temperature
(°C, left picture) and precipitation (%, right picture),
by the 2080s, compared to a recent climate (1961-90), predicted
by the Met Office Hadley Centre regional climate model. These
predictions form the UKCIP2002 Medium-High climate change scenario.
Three other scenarios have been constructed, corresponding
to other possible levels of greenhouse gas emissions in the
future. |
The scenarios are presented in a report*, written jointly by the
Met Office Hadley Centre and the Tyndall Centre, for the UK Climate
Impacts Programme (UKCIP), and funded by the Global Atmosphere
Division of DEFRA. It is expected that these new scenarios will
be widely used to assess the impacts of climate change on a range
of UK regions and businesses. In addition to predictions of future
change, a new
baseline
data set, containing monthly averages from 1961-2000 of many
meteorological variables at 5 km resolution, has been constructed
by the Met Office.
For a more detailed description, with details of how to access
the scenario data and the reports, please visit the UKCIP web site
www.ukcip.org.uk.
The Met Office has already carried out many assessments of the
impact of climate change on sectors of business and industry, for
example water resources, flooding, building subsidence for the insurance
industry. To inquire how our Consulltancy group can make similar
assessments, in the UK or globally, for your business, please contact
us.
Notes
* Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: the UKCIP02
Scientific Report. M. Hulme, G.J. Jenkins, X. Lu, J.R. Turnpenny,
T.D. Mitchell, R.G. Jones, J. Lowe, J.M. Murphy and D. Hassell.
Tyndall Centre, University of East Anglia, April 2002.
A shorter version is also available as:
Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: the UKCIP02 Briefing
Report. M. Hulme, G.J. Jenkins and J.R. Turnpenny. Tyndall Centre,
University of East Anglia, April 2002.
Links
Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs: www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/index.htm
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research: www.tyndall.ac.uk
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: www.ipcc.ch
For more information contact:
Met Office Press Office
Tel: +44 (0)1344 856655
Met Office Customer Centre
Tel: 0870 900 5454 (calls charged at national rate)
If you're outside the UK tel: +44 (0)1344 855680
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