The Age of Stupid

A climate scientist’s view of 2055

Following the release of the futuristic film The Age of Stupid our climate impacts expert Dr Richard Betts takes a scientific look at what our world may be like in 2055.

He explains:

“To help predict what the future climate might be like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed different scenarios, ranging from reducing emissions in the short, medium and long term to continuing emissions growth around the world. Under the IPCC scenario of ongoing emissions, global temperatures are projected to increase by about 2 °C by mid-century. Temperature rises are likely to be greater over land and at the poles.

Sea-level rise is projected to add around 20 cm, on average, to coastlines around the world, so storms are much more likely to cause flooding. Extreme weather is also likely to become more frequent. The intensity of hurricanes may increase.

The changes to our climate depicted by the Age of Stupid are certainly not science fiction. They are at the extreme end of the projections, but still plausible, and very real changes are already taking place in our environment. Those detailed below are just some of the changes we’re most likely to see by the middle of this century.

While some changes in climate cannot be reversed, if we act now we can decrease the risk of big changes in the second half of this century. Further changes depend on what we do now to curb emissions of greenhouse gases. However, even with drastic cuts in emissions beginning in the next ten years, our research suggest there will only be around a 50% chance of keeping global temperature rises below 2 °C.”

Different changes in different places

• UK — winters set to become wetter increasing the risk of flooding. Summers may become drier, with the possibility of more droughts. Temperatures will rise — leading to milder winters and warmer summers. Heatwaves, such as the 2003 heatwave, could occur every other year, on average.
• Europe — climate change may not be all bad, at first, with the ability to grow crops further north, increasing productivity. However, crop yields are expected to decline at higher temperatures. In the Alps the smallest glaciers may have disappeared and larger ones shrunk by 30–70%.
• Africa — east Africa may see an increase in rainfall, but the continent is likely to have difficulties adapting to climate change due to poverty, poor health and hunger. Water resources will become increasingly scarce as the risk of drought increases. More of the population will be under water stress and there will be more risk of migration and conflict. Find out more about the effects on the developing world.
• India — river-flow from glacier meltwater, on which many people's lives and livelihoods depend, will become more erratic as the glaciers will have already shrunk. Crop productivity may increase in parts of East and South-East Asia, but decline in other areas.
• South America — the Amazon rainforest will be mainly affected by the continuation of logging activity. Climate change may also cause the forest to die back, especially if it has already been weakened by deforestation. By 2055, we could be committed to further loss of the forest ecosystem later in the century if it dries out in warmer temperatures.
• North America — reduced water supplies will become a major concern. Ozone levels in cities, a growing respiratory irritant, are set to rise, causing an increase in ozone-related deaths by 5%.
• Australia — hot, dry weather, giving a high risk of wildfire, is expected to occur more often and be more severe. Additional heat-related deaths for people aged over 65 are also very likely with an extra 3,000 to 5,000 excess deaths expected every year.