The graphic shows the probability of getting certain conditions in a season. Summer 2009 sees the greatest probability of temperatures being above average but does not rule out average conditions. We are expecting some spells of high temperatures (above 30 degrees Celsius).
The graphic shows areas where there is greater probability of average or drier than average conditions (orange) and wetter than average conditions (green). Although the forecast is for a drier and warmer summer than average that does not mean that we will not get some heavy downpours that lead to flash flooding.
There is statistical evidence to show that warmer sea temperatures in the Pacific (El Nino) leads to a ‘blocking’ high developing over Europe bringing warmer, drier conditions than normal.
