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Is all this rain a sign of climate
change? |
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A research project for DEFRA was carried out in 2001 by the Met
Office's Hadley Centre
for Climate Change and the Centre
for Ecology and Hydrology, to look at the extreme flooding
in October and November 2000. It concluded that, though the events
were extreme, they could not in themselves be attributed to climate
change. However, heavy rainfall and peak river flows of similar
duration have been increasing in frequency and magnitude over
the past 50 years. This pattern is consistent with model predictions
of how human-induced climate change affects rainfall.
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Why, if we're meant to have global
warming, is the weather so miserable? |
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The evidence is mounting that the climate is changing.
Globally, 1998 was the hottest year ever recorded, and nine out
of the ten hottest years ever recorded have occured since 1990.
Here in the UK, four out of five of the hottest years ever recorded
over a 330-year period have occured since then.
The average global surface temperature has risen by 0.6 °C
in the past 140 years. Scientists say the Earth is warming faster
than it has in the past thousand years. But climate change is
a better description than global warming, as some areas may, in
fact, cool. It also describes other effects like rising sea levels
and wilder weather.
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Will climate change mean that
we will see more severe weather events? |
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Experts predict that fierce storms and floods
are likely to become more frequent in the future. Over the past
100 years, warming has been accompanied by a reduction in the
frequency of frosts and an increase in the number of heatwaves
in many parts of the world. The amount of rainfall is getting
heavier in some countries in terms of volume per downpour.
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Is tropical cyclone activity
increasing as an effect of global warming? |
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Both theoretical and high resolution computer modeling studies
indicate there is the potential for tropical cyclone intensity
(measured by windspeed) to increase with global warming. However
the frequency of tropical cyclones is projected to decrease globally,
therefore there may not be any increase in overall risk. This
global average picture may mask regional variation; some areas
of the world may see increased frequency, intensity and risk.
More
about Met Office tropical cyclone forecast guidance
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Is the 'greenhouse effect' the
same as global warming? |
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NO: The 'greenhouse effect' is the way the atmosphere
traps some of energy we receive from the Sun (infrared radiation
(heat), ultraviolet and visible light) and stops it being retransmitted
back out into space. This makes the Earth warm enough for life.
The problem is that scientists believe we are adding dangerously
to the natural greenhouse effect with the gases from industry and
agriculture (chiefly carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide).
This traps more solar energy and hence increases the temperature. |
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