Led by Richard Jones.
Deriving useful regional climate information from available climate forecast and long term climate projection data requires a good understanding of the quality of the data sources. Having confidence in and the ability to apply this information is significantly enhanced by: (a) having access to the models and data from which it is derived: and (b) being involved in generating it. There is a significant lack of this information and capability within Africa which is an important issue given the many developing countries there whose economies are heavily dependent on agriculture and natural resources that are vulnerable to fluctuations in climate.
PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) is a regional climate modelling system developed at the Met Office Hadley Centre which incorporates Hadley Centre RCMs, boundary conditions from a range of GCMs, data processing, analysis and display tools backed up by a flexible and in-depth training programme. PRECIS can thus be used for:
- scientific analysis of drivers of local and regional climate variability;
- developing and analysing high resolution regional climate scenarios;
- supporting the application and dissemination of regional climate information.
In this Output, in collaboration with African scientists, an in-depth analysis will be undertaken of the capability of PRECIS to simulate and help research African climate variability. New capability will be added to incorporate multi-model boundary conditions and incorporate regional forcing scenarios. New capability will also be added to enable it to provide detailed seasonal-to-decadal predictions.
Research conducted for this output will also contribute to the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment ( CORDEX) of the World Climate Research Programme ( WCRP), which aims to provide downscaled climate scenarios for Africa in the context of the 5th Climate Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) run to assist in the development of the IPCC's 5th assessment report (AR5).