'Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.' (IPCC, 2007)
The environmental stresses of climate change will be felt across the globe but more severely by developing countries. These areas are already more flood and drought prone with a large share of their economy held in climate sensitive sectors. The impacts of climate change are likely to exacerbate inequalities in health systems as well as access to adequate food, clean water and other resources.
The Met Office provides advice to senior defence officials on the likely flash points around the world where issues could be driven or exacerbated by climate change. In a recent briefing document to the MOD key regions and sectors at risk from the environmental stresses of climate change were identified.
The summary maps below highlight the key regions and sectors at risk from future climate changes.
Water stress and drought
The Met Office Hadley Centre model indicates large decreases in water availability across west Asia, the Middle-East, Central America and the Mediterranean and Amazon basins.
Coastal and river flooding
The global number of people flooded each year is projected to increase from less than 5 million to approximately 20 million by 2030, 50 million by 2050 and between 160 million (low emissions scenario) and 370 million (high emissions scenario) by 2100. The largest coastal agricultural land areas at risk of flooding from sea level rise are in Pakistan, India, Indonesia and the east coast of Africa.
Crop Yield
The impact of climate change on crop yield varies greatly according to the species and site characteristics.
In tropical regions where some crops are near their maximum temperature threshold and in water limited agricultural regions (South America, Africa, Middle East, south-east Asia and Australia) yields are projected to decrease under climate change.
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