Visualising a range of possible weather scenarios, probabilities and impacts on energy trading in Europe.


Understanding the certainty of a forecast is vital to trading weather-impacted stocks such as crude, natural gas or electricity. It can be difficult to understand and quickly interpret the huge amount of information provided by probabilistic forecasts.

Decider is a unique tool aimed at the synoptic meteorologist, in particular those within energy and finance companies, to enable you to provide fuller and faster advice to your traders who are making weather-exposed trades.

Decider is a three to 30 day forecast product for Europe that displays the ECMWF ensemble outputs in a map-and-table format, and enables you to view likely upcoming weather scenarios and impacts over the forecast period. There are three different versions of Decider available which can be taken separately, or in conjunction with each other, to provide a complete picture of upcoming weather up to a month ahead.

  • 30-day version - updated weekly
  • 15-day version - updated daily or twice daily
  • Daily conditioned update of 30-day version - updated daily or twice daily

Decider can be delivered via email, datafeed or web application.

Benefits of Decider

"Decider has revolutionised the way we interpret the weather forecast."

Dave Parker, Principal Meteorologist EDF energy

Understanding the likelihood of various weather scenarios and their progression, enables you to analyse more information more quickly.

  • At-a-glance guide to the levels of certainty in the forecasts enables hedging and trading decisions to be made with more confidence.
  • Summarises a fuller range of information than traditional ensemble products so it can be interpreted and acted upon more quickly.
  • Provides a seamless and detailed outlook up to 30 days ahead with an optional daily update.
  • Daily conditioned updates are a world-leading product, offering a daily or twice-daily update facility to a monthly forecast - enabling information to be released at a timescale that better trading.

Decider Make a difference to your decision-making with Decider (PDF, 3 MB)

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Last updated: 6 June 2014

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