Decider visualises the probability of a range of weather types to give confidence to trading decisions

Visualising a range of possible weather types, probabilities and impacts on energy, financial and other commodity trading in Europe.

Understanding the certainty of a forecast is vital to trading weather-impacted stocks such as crude, natural gas or power.

Decider is a bespoke solution for synoptic meteorologists, in particular those within energy and finance companies. It helps interpret the large amounts of data provided by ensemble and probabilistic forecasts and ensures traders working on weather-exposed trades are fully informed. This unique solution, using new objectively derived weather types, alongside probability tables and forecast confidence make educated decisions for up to out to 30 days ahead.

There are three available product options:

  • Decider15 - 15 day weather type forecast
  • Decider32 - 32 day weather type forecast
  • Daily Historic Classifications from 1850 to 2014

Features and benefits

Helps you quickly identify the likelihood of different weather types and pick out key changes and transitions over the forecast period.

Summarises a fuller range of information than traditional ensemble products so it can be interpreted and acted upon more quickly.

Main summary table, highlighting the probability of each regime occurring, set against the seasonal statistical occurrence.

NEW! Weather regime sort table - helping identify highlight trends towards warmer/colder, wetter/drier, calm/windy regimes.

NEW! Updated climatologies with use of the latest ECMWF reanalysis data. Objectively derived from 154 years worth of gridded data analysis.

NEW! Forecast confidence index statistics. Guide to levels of certainty in the forecasts enables hedging and trading decisions to be made with more confidence.

Ensemble mean maps displaying pressure, precipitation and temperature for the top three most likely regimes for each day, aggregating the information into a single display.

Seamless and detailed outlook up to 30 days ahead with an optional daily update.

Last updated: 28 August 2015