Lake District mountain area forecast

Hazards

High risk of Persistent extensive hill fog: Extensive during the morning, becoming patchy through the afternoon.

Medium risk of Severe chill effect: Even a fresh wind will produce significant wind-chill.

No risk of Blizzards; Heavy snow; Storm force winds; Gales; Thunderstorms; Heavy persistent rain; Strong sunlight;

Weather summary and probability of precipitation for Friday

Dawn to 0900		Dull	10% chance of precipitation
0900 to 1200		Dull	10% chance of precipitation
1200 to 1500		Cloudy	0% chance of precipitation
1500 to dusk		Cloudy	0% chance of precipitation

Friday

Weather

A mostly cloudy and rather misty day, but a few breaks in the cloud at first across the north of the Park where there is likely to be some dense patches of fog at low levels. Elsewhere there will be extensive hill fog especially across south and southeast facing slopes with a few light snow flurries. The afternoon will see hill fog lift and become more patchy, especially over eastern fells where there could be some late brightness with mist thinning. Many surfaces will be frozen and will be very slippy with new snow, but rain in west falling onto frozen surfaces could bring rather treacherous walking conditions.

Visibility

Moderate or poor, with areas of fog and only nearby hills visible at times, although perhaps some middle distance hills will come into view late afternoon.

Hill fog

Extensive fog above about 400 to 500M during the morning with some patches lower down at first. Fog higher up the hills this afternoon and becoming rather more patchy in the late afternoon, especially across eastern fells.

Maximum winds above 500m

Generally southerly winds with average speeds of around 25mph. This will cause some buffeting over the higher ridges and summits with considerable wind-chill.

Temperature

Valleys: Zero Celsius rising to Plus 2 Celsius
900 m: Minus 3 Celsius, but plus 2 Celsius in west at first
Freezing level: All levels, but 300 metres at first in west, with a warmer layer between 500 metres and 1300 metres for much of the morning too.

Ground Conditions

Latest: 09/02/2012 18:18 FELLTOP CONDITIONS REPORT for Thursday 9th February 2012. The treacherous road conditions in Cumbria today prevented the fell top assessor from going up onto the fells, so unfortunately there is no fresh report for today. The forecast is for a thaw at all levels by Thursday afternoon, although there is still a considerable amount of snow on the high fells - which will take some time to melt - and a subsequent re-freeze could make for some very icy conditions on the fells. In absence of a report for today, below is a recap of Wednesday's felltop conditions: On Wednesday there was significantly more snow in the south of the park, while in the north the snowline was around 500m. The snow depth is mostly 15cm but up to 100cm where it has accumulated in drifts. In most places it has a hard crust and is soft underneath, care should be taken on steep ground where the snow is likely to be unstable, especially with a thaw. On Wednesday there was ice at all levels and on paths with compacted snow, which will be hazardous after a re-freeze. There are cornices on north and east aspects and should be avoided. Striding and Swirral Edges are in winter condition and require appropriate skills and equipment to ascend safely. Crampons and ice axe along with full winter clothing and footwear are essential for anyone going into the hills.

Saturday

Weather

A dry and mostly bright day, although areas of freezing fog expected at lower levels, especially in the east in morning with some patches persisting throughout the day. Western fells likely to be prone to more in the way of cloud however, especially to the west of Keswick, where there could be some rather persistent hill fog through the morning. Higher cloud will likely make any sunshine hazy in the afternoon

Visibility

Areas of fog or hill fog, especially in the morning, otherwise mostly good perhaps very good in the east, but generally moderate to good across western fells, especially in the northwest.

Hill fog

Occasional patches 600m, although periods of fog 400m in the west, but mainly during the morning with some lower patches over the extreme west.

Maximum winds above 500m

West or Southwesterly 10 to 15mph, but light and variable at times over eastern fells.

Temperature

Valleys: Minus 3 Celsius mostly rising to Plus 1 Celsius
900 m: Minus 2 Celsius
Freezing level: All levels

Outlook

Sunday

Cloudy but mainly dry in morning, then areas of hill fog developing, especially across western slopes as outbreaks of sleet or snow spread from the northwest. Light west or southwesterly winds becoming northwesterly and strengthening fresh or strong over summits with freezing level rising to 500m late in day.

Monday

Cloudy morning with perhaps some rain, sleet or snow at first but this soon clearing southwards with sunny spells developing. A few showers will develop and it will become colder with snow flurries expected towards dusk. Strong to gale force northerly winds will become northeasterly later with freezing conditions over all levels

Tuesday

Bitterly cold with a severe wind chill, despite lengthy spells of crisp sunshine. The odd snow shower likely, these mostly over the northeast of the Park. Freezing at all levels but strong or gale force northeasterly winds easing fresh later.