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Long Range Forecast

  • UK 6-30 days

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Aug 2017 to Friday 11 Aug 2017:

An area of low pressure will bring rain and strong winds to the west on Wednesday, before this gradually spreads eastwards during Thursday. The heaviest rain is likely to be across the northwest, whilst further south and east there will be smaller amounts of rain. Thereafter, it is likely to remain unsettled across the UK, with a mixture of sunshine and showers, these heaviest and most frequent in the northwest with the risk of thunder. It will remain windy for most with the chance of gales in exposed parts of the west and northwest. It may start to turn drier in the south towards the end of this period. Temperatures will stay close to normal for early August, but it will feel cooler in showers and stronger winds.

UK Outlook for Saturday 12 Aug 2017 to Saturday 26 Aug 2017:

As we head through second week of August, there are signs that we will see drier and more settled weather with high pressure becoming more widely established across the UK. This will bring a break from the previously unsettled weather with longer spells of drier and brighter weather. However, there is still the chance that spells of rain or showers will affect the north at times. With more sunshine, temperatures should become a little warmer than normal for some, but with a west or northwesterly wind we could see some cooler nights. Later in August, confidence reduces significantly, perhaps with a return to more unsettled conditions in the north and west. The south may hold on to drier and brighter weather, but even here there is the risk of showers.

Updated: 14:42 on Fri 28 Jul 2017 BST

Long-range weather prediction

Predicting how the weather will behave over the coming hours, days, weeks and months is a complex undertaking. Each timescale presents its own challenges. In an ideal world, everyone would like to know exactly what the weather will do so we can make definite plans. Nature, however, doesn't work like that. When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Medium range (6 - 15 days)

Medium-range weather forecasts cover anything from around three to 10-days ahead. The UK medium-range outlook is covered in the five-day location and map-based forecasts as well as the meteorologist written forecasts. The 6-10 day text forecasts provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK, including significant changes in the type of weather. It also provides a risk assessment of severe weather, such as heavy rainfall, severe gales or an extended period of high or low temperatures.

Extended-range (10 - 30 days)

Extended-range weather forecasts cover periods between 10 and 30-days ahead. This covers the end of our 6-15 day text forecast and the whole of our 16-30 day text forecast. If you are after a 14-day weather forecast then our 6-15 day text forecast will provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK. The 16-30 day text outlook (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).