Fig T2: 1-month and 3-month UK outlook for temperature in the context of observed climatologyEnlarge
Climatology information for 2 periods is shown:
long-term climatology 1971-2000 - the reference period (black symbols
observations for the most recent period (2001-2010) (grey symbols)
Differences between the 1971-2000 and 2001-2010 climatologies reflect long-term variability in the UK's climate (e.g. with warming temperatures over this period).
The left-hand panel shows information relating to the coming month, the right-hand panel shows information relating to the coming 3-month period. Each coloured point (purple or blue) represents one of the ensemble member predictions - all the individual points are equally likely outcomes.
Both the forecast and observed reference climatology (1971--2000) are also represented as continuous curves (coloured and black curves) - the probability density functions. These indicate the range of predicted outcomes, as well as the relative likelihood of different outcomes.
The background shading indicates the quintile categories (well-below; below; average; above and well-above average temperature) of the reference (1971-2000) climatology. These are defined as equally likely (20% each) over the reference period.