Fig T3: 1-month and 3-month UK outlook for temperature in the context of recent climatology: year-to-year and within-season variability
Observations are shown for each month during the 3-month period of interest observed each year since 1990. (Note that this period is shorter than and different from the reference period, and may not be representative of the full climatological variability possible).
This sets the 1-month and 3-month outlook in the context of conditions observed in recent years, and emphasises that caution is required in using the 3-month average outlook as representative of the conditions predicted for individual months within the period.
Outlook information shows the prediction for the average over the next 1-month and 3-month period (here, for temperature) from each of the 42 'members' of the ensemble prediction, after expert modification. Each point represents an equally likely future scenario.
Note that for UK temperature, the strong annual cycle leads to significant inter-month temperature variations, generally larger than the spread of predicted 3-month averages.