Quantifying the key mechanisms and feedbacks in the climate system; identifying systematic model errors; informing model development, and reducing uncertainty in model predictions of climate change.
The Climate Model Development and Evaluation group assembles and evaluates new versions of the atmospheric component of the climate version of the Unified Model. This model is coupled with ocean, chemistry and carbon-cycle models which form the basis of the Met Office Hadley Centre's success in climate and climate change modelling. The evaluation process encompasses documentation and assessment of both the mean climate, and its temporal and spatial variability. An important aspect of this work is to establish links, where possible, between processes operating in past, present and future climates. We are continually involved in the development and refinement of diagnostics and metrics for assessing model performance, and for isolating the key feedback mechanisms relevant to improved simulations of climate and climate change.
The next generation of climate models (HadGEM3 family) will focus on providing regional detail on seasonal to decadal timescales, so this project aims to deliver a model which is capable of representing the major processes and feedbacks operating on these spatial and temporal scales.
A major focus for the HadGEM3 family is on delivering improved predictions of climate for vulnerable regions of Africa, including predictions of extremes for critical variables such as rainfall. This project aims to evaluate key local processes and modes of variability, and to develop improved understanding of both local and remote influences driving African climate. The project engages with UK universities and African scientists, as well as with the international research community through initiatives such as AMMA.
The ASM is a major component of the atmospheric circulation, and the economies and livelihood of the populations of India and southeast Asia depend heavily on the rainfall associated with it. Simulation of the ASM and its variability remains a significant challenge for GCMs. This project brings together scientists from the Met Office, the University of Reading, NCMRWF (India) and KMA (Korea). It also forms part of the Met Office/NERC Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme (JWCRP-Met Office, JWCRP-NERC).