Unusual or extreme weather and climate-related events are of great public concern and interest, yet there are often conflicting messages from scientists about whether such events can be linked to climate change. We propose a way forward.
Through the development of carefully calibrated physically-based assessments of observed weather and climate-related events, we can identify any changed risk of such events attributable to particular factors.
Research is under way, coordinated as part of the international Attribution of Climate-related Events (ACE) initiative, to develop the science needed to better respond to the demand for timely, objective, and authoritative explanations of extreme events.
The ACE group aims to meet the challenges involved in developing systems to provide regularly updated and reliable attribution assessments of extreme weather and climate-related events. The group first met at the 2010 Attribution Workshop in Colorado.
The latest ACE meeting took place from 12-14 September at the Extreme Meteorological Events Workshop 2012.
Articles and presentations:
How Much Can We Blame on Global Warming? - Peter Stott's November 2011 article in New Scientist.