Monthly to decadal applications
Predictions and user-relevant applications on monthly to decadal timescale
Long-range predictions, from dynamical or empirical methods, often refer to large-scale phenomena (e.g. , ) or give information on large-area averages. The variables for which predictions are made are most often meteorological (e.g. temperature, rainfall).
Users' needs are typically related to their economic or social activities which translate into specific, non-meteorological variables (e.g. flow into lakes, crop production, number of storms in an ocean basin).
Our work involves tailoring prediction model output to match the needs of users.
Key aims
To combine output from dynamical and empirical models; theoretical studies and expert judgment; to derive monthly, seasonal and decadal predictions for global and regional scales.
To develop user-relevant applications.
To support international seasonal forecasting activities.
Current activities
Research into seasonal prediction applications
Monthly forecast products
Support to seasonal predictions in Africa
Seasonal tropical storm predictions
Predictability of extremes on monthly to decadal timescales
