Technical User Guide

Guidance on the use of our long-range forecasts

Seasonal forecasting methods and systems

Introduction to seasonal forecasting

Met Office seasonal forecasting system (GloSea5)

Seasonal forecast calibration and category definitions

Guide to forecast maps and diagrams

Probability forecast maps

Tropical Pacific (Niño region) sea-surface temperature forecasts

Guide to skill assessment

The verification procedures used to measure the performance of the seasonal forecasts are those recommended by the Standardised Verification System (SVS) for long-range forecasts (LRF) developed by the Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Relative operating characteristics (ROC) curves and maps

Reliability and sharpness diagrams

Last updated: 15 April 2016