Multi-model decadal forecast exchange
The Met Office coordinates an informal exchange of near-real time decadal predictions. Many institutions around the world are developing decadal prediction capability and this informal exchange is intended to facilitate research and collaboration on the topic.
The contributing prediction systems are a mixture of dynamical and statistical methods. The prediction from each institute is shown below, alongside an average of all the models. When possible, observations for the period of the forecast are also shown. Currently three variables are included: surface air temperature, sea-level pressure and precipitation. These are shown as differences from the 1971-2000 baseline. More diagnostics, including ocean variables are planned for the future. Please use the drop-down menus below to explore the data collected to date.
This work is supported by the European Commission SPECS project.
To learn more about decadal forecasts at the Met Office, see our current Decadal forecast.