Sahel, Soudan and Guinea Coast rainfall

Map of Africa regions

Map of Africa regions

The Sahel is the transitional semi-arid region of North Africa south of the Sahara desert between 12.5°N and 17.5°N. Its inhabitants are sensitive to rainfall amounts in the wet season (typically July to September), with droughts causing significant hardship. Rainfall is very variable from year to year and decade to decade. The Soudan is the belt immediately to the south of the Sahel between 12.5°N and 10°N. While the wet season is wetter on average than in the Sahel, it also has considerable variability. The Guinea Coast is a humid tropical region south of 10°N encompassing the countries of Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and western Nigeria. Forecasts of the most likely of five rainfall categories (very wet, wet, average, dry or very dry) are produced using dynamical forecast models. Each of these categories has occurred in one-fifth of past years.

Important

  • Long-range forecasts are unlike weather forecasts for the next few days
  • Forecasts show the likelihood of a range of possible outcomes
  • The most likely outcome in the forecast will not always happen
  • Forecasts are for average conditions over a wide region and time period
  • For more details on interpretation, see How to use our long-range predictions

Forecast

Issued July 2014

W Africa seasonal forecast Seasonal forecast for July-September 2014 (PDF, 288 kB)

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Last updated: 15 July 2014