Evaluation of the GloSea4 seasonal forecast system over Mozambique: Rainfall Climatology and predictability
Mozambique is a country of significant rainfall variability and is subject to extreme events such as drought, flood and tropical cyclones, and ranks third among the African countries most exposed to risk from multiple weather-related hazards. Agriculture is the backbone of rural livelihoods and more than 70% of the population reside in rural areas and are heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. The aim of this project is to evaluate the performance of the UK Met Office's Global Seasonal forecast system (known as GloSea4) over Mozambique. The UK Met Office is one of the WMO-designated Global Producing Centers (GPCs) and provides long-range guidance on rainfall and temperature conditions for the entire globe. If good skill is found for Mozambique, the seasonal forecast from the UK Met Office system can be used in conjunction with the Southern African Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) seasonal forecast. This hybrid seasonal forecast has potential to improve on the seasonal forecast system currently used in Mozambique, helping the country to make better use of limited economic resources in preparing for the rainy season.
The study will assess the performance of the deterministic and probabilistic forecasts from the Glosea4 seasonal forecast system. In the deterministic forecast the ensemble mean will be used as single forecast and compared against the observation. The probabilistic forecast verification will be performed using the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC).
Arlindo is a meteorologist with the Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM). He has experience in public weather forecasting as well as in aeronautical meteorology. He earned is MSc in climatology from the University of Burgundy in France and BSc in meteorology from Eduardo Mondlane University in Mozambique. He is currently registered as a PhD student at the University of Cape Town in South Africa.
Areas of Particular interest:
Based at: Climate Science Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Cape Town South Africa
This research project aligns with theme 4 of the CSRP Fellowship scheme: Seasonal forecast evaluation and use
Arlindo Meque is working in collaboration with Alberto Arribas of the Met Office.
Last updated: 12 May 2016