Prediction of decadal climate over Eastern Africa region
The Eastern Africa Region, like the rest of Africa, is prone to extreme climatic variability that influences the intensity, duration, and frequency of droughts and floods - all with serious implications on water resources, agriculture, human health and many other human activities. Knowledge on decadal climate variability and change is of particular interest in the coming decade, which represents a key planning horizon for infrastructure upgrades, insurance, energy policy, and business development. The predictability of eastern African decadal climate variability will be investigated using the Hadley Centre Decadal Climate Prediction System (DePreSys). The study attempts to investigate the skill of decadal predictions using both idealized model experiments and a comprehensive set of decadal hindcasts covering the period since 1960. The skill of prediction is assessed when both initialized and uninitialized hindcasts are used so as to quantify the impact of initialization and the externally-forced components. Other areas of research are aimed at improving the understanding of mechanisms involving decadal variability and thereafter attempt to develop experimental decadal prediction products for the eastern Africa region.
Dr Omondi has been working as a climate research scientist for 10 years at the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). He specializes in the development of seasonal rainfall forecast where he trains scientists from the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) countries. He has successfully helped in the organization of Greater Horn of Africa Regional Climate outlook Forums (GHACOFs). He is part of an expert team formed by the World Climate Research Programme that leads the analysis of Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment - CORDEX for the African continent. He has peer reviewed journals published on eastern Africa climate variability and change. He has BSc (Honours), MSc and PhD degrees in Meteorology from the University of Nairobi.
Areas of particular interest and expertise:
Based at: IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre
This research project aligns with theme 5 of the CSRP Fellowship scheme: Decadal forecast evaluation and demonstration of potential uses
Omondi Philip Amingó is working in collaboration with Dr Doug Smith of the Met Office.
Last updated: 12 May 2016