Driving land surface models with high-resolution meteorological data provides analyses and forecasts of surface and subsurface hydrological quantities such as soil moisture, snowmelt, evaporation, runoff and river flow.
MOSES has been enhanced by including a surface runoff production component (the PDM developed at CEH) which represents the heterogeneity of soil water holding capacity. MOSES-PDM has been integrated into the UKPP system, thereby enabling MOSES-PDM to operate on a 2km grid covering the UK driven by analyses of precipitation, cloud and near-surface temperature, humidity and wind. The system provides hourly updates of the surface and subsurface hydrology. The figure shows an example of the surface runoff produced by UKPP-MOSES-PDM. A prototype river flow model has been coupled to MOSES-PDM. This implementation is a result of further collaboration with CEH hydrologists. CEH have also derived for the Met Office river flow paths and other ancillary files (such as estimates of bank-full flows) for areas of current military deployment and these are being implemented with the RFM coupled to the South Asian CAM run by the Met Office to aid military assessments of trafficability. Further work will enable river flow forecasts to be made for the UK driven by operational ensemble precipitation forecasts.