Working Group I summary report

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis of Climate Change, assesses the current scientific knowledge of the natural and human drivers of climate change, observed changes in climate, the ability of science to attribute changes to different causes, and projections for future climate change.

The report provides persuasive evidence of climate change and includes significantly advanced observations of the climate system, presents new projections of future global climate change using results from 19 climate models, all with improved representations of physics, chemistry, and spatial resolution. The report also covers the range of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and other factors that drive climate change. There will also be a chapter assessing the paleoclimatic perspective.

The summary report can be downloaded from the IPCC web site.

The key areas of the report are:

  • Observing climate change – warming has now been observed across the Earth system. The atmosphere, land observations and even data from below the surface of the oceans have all shown this warming trend. In the past, there has been some apparent inconsistencies between measurements from different parts of the system. Now, in this report, there is far greater certainty that the planet is undergoing warming.
  • Causes of planetary warming – this report provides new evidence that humans have played a major part in the observed warming trend. Human activity, through the generation and release of greenhouse gases, has been a significant contributory factor in the global temperature rise.
  • The future – as the climate changes, the challenges are likely to be profound. Understanding what aspects of the weather and climate will change most rapidly is important. With research showing that the climate is changing faster and in a more dramatic fashion than has previously been reported, what will the climate look like in the years to come? what will our day-to-day weather be like and, a question for society in general, how is this going to affect our behaviour in the future? The issue is a big one and it is important that the science addresses the uncertainty and helps provide answers.
Global near-surface temperatures

Key to graph:

  • Red bars represent the global temperature value for each year.
  • The blue line is the 10-year running average.
  • The green bar is the 2006 value (still provisional at this stage).