Dr Giovanni Leoncini

Giovanni works on convective-scale ensembles and is interested in meso- and convective-scale modelling.

Areas of expertise

  • Convective-scale processes and predictability
  • Mesoscale Modelling
  • Use of the Unified Model and associated systems

Current activities

Giovanni works on the design of a convective-scale ensemble. The overarching goal is to provide probabilistic forecast at very high spatial resolution. This is a particularly daunting task because of the great computational costs, but also because of the lack of a comprehensive theoretical framework for convection. This implies that there is no clear physical and mathematical balance upon which to define a measure of variability.

The ensemble will be based on the boundary conditions provided by the regional scale ensemble MOGREPS-R since there is increasing evidence that boundary conditions are responsible for most of the variability of convective precipitation. Giovanni's current efforts are focusing on defining a measure or a set of measures to identify the members of the regional ensemble that once downscaled could best describe the uncertainty at the convective scale.

Verification is also a major issue, because the skill of the model varies with scale length and it is also related to the measure of uncertainty mentioned. Furthermore the ensemble should aid the forecast of convective precipitation as well as snow, fog and strong winds.

Career background

Giovanni joined the Met Office in November 2009 when he started working for the Mesoscale Modelling group at the Joint Research Centres. Before that he worked as a Post Doc at the University of Reading on convective-scale predictability. Giovanni completed his PhD at Colorado State University under the supervision of Prof. Pielke Sr, and his Masters in Meteorology at San Jose State University working with Prof. Bornstein. Before moving to the States, Giovanni was self-employed as environment consultant for three years during which he obtained the Health Physics Certificate from the University of Bologna. He also obtained his "Laurea" in physics from the University of Bologna.

Last updated: 9 April 2014