Dr Jonathan Tinker
Jonathan predicts future changes in shelf seas terms of sea level rise, hydrography and circulation.
Jonathan was one of the authors of the UKCP09 Marine Report, doing the analysis, writing and plots for the relative sea level rise section of the mean sea level chapter, and the writing of the annex on vertical land movement.
Jonathan is developing the Met Office Hadley Centre's capability for Regional Ocean Climate Modelling. For UKCP09 the chapter focusing on NW European shelf seas was lead by the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory (POL), using their model POLCOMS. They drove the model with atmospheric forcings from the Met Office Hadley Centre's regional climate model HadRM3, with ocean forcings from climatology. Jonathan has developed a system to allow POLCOMS to be driven from HadCM3 and HadRM3.
The current focus of Jon's work is validating model results. This will lead to running additional ensemble member to give uncertainty estimates for quantities such as sea temperature and salinity, to compliment the projections of UKCP09. This will be used to estimate uncertainty in European shelf sea climate projections.
In order to bring the UKCP09 Marine results to a wider audience, Jonathan has given a number of presentations to external stakeholders within the marine community. This engagement fits well with his involvement with the steering group of the Marine Climate Change Impact Partnership (MCCIP).
Jonathan started at the Met Office Hadley Centre in June 2008 and immediately began working on the UKCP09 Marine Report, followed by his work with POLCOMS.
Prior to joining the Met Office Jonathan received a distinction for his MSc in Applied Physical Oceanography at the University of Wales, Bangor, before doing a PhD at the University of Plymouth where he measured and modelled cross-shore sediment transport and profile evolution on natural beaches.