Experimental seasonal rainfall forecasts for the north-east Brazil region have been issued since 1987. The wet season in this region peaks in March and April, but substantial rainfall also occurs from February to May. Statistical prediction methods are used, based on pre-season sea-surface temperature anomaly patterns. Additional prediction information from the Met Office's ocean-atmosphere general circulation model has been incorporated in recent years.

A long-lead forecast is issued in December for the February to May period and an updated forecast is issued in mid-February for the March to May period. Forecasts issued are available below in Adobe Portable Document Format (pdf).

The March-May 2008 rainfall season is likely to be close to average. For more details see

• Forecast using information up to end of November for February to May 2008

• Forecast using information up to late February for March to May 2007
• Forecast using information up to end of November for February to May 2007

• Forecast using information up to Mid-February for March to May 2006
• Long-Lead (using information up to end of November) forecast for February to May 2006

• Forecast using information up to Mid-February for March to May 2005
• Long-Lead (using information up to end of November) forecast for February to May 2005

• Updated forecast for March to May 2004
• Preliminary forecast for March to May 2004
• Long-lead forecast for February to May 2004

• Updated forecast for March to May 2003
• Preliminary forecast for March to May 2003
• Long-lead forecast for February to May 2003

• Updated forecast for March to May 2002
• Preliminary forecast for March to May 2002
• Long-lead forecast for February to May 2002

• Updated forecast for March to May 2001
• Preliminary forecast for March to May 2001
• Long-lead forecast for January to June 2001

• Updated forecast for March to May 2000
• Preliminary forecast for March to May 2000
• Long-lead forecast for January to June 2000

• Updated forecast for March to May 1999
• Preliminary forecast for March to May 1999
• Long-lead forecast for January to June 1999

• Verification of forecasts