All forecasts, of whatever type, are ultimately based on the predictions from our suite of sophisticated atmospheric and oceanic models, run on our powerful supercomputer.
This form of forecasting is known as numerical weather prediction (NWP). The accuracy of global Met Office Unified Model forecasts is measured by the Global NWP Index.
The Global NWP Index measures how well the global atmospheric circulation (like the location of upper-level jet streams important for global aviation) is modelled by the computer models. The higher the Global NWP Index, the more accurate the computer forecasts are becoming. The Index enables us to track, year-on-year, the improvements in our computer modelling capability.
Global NWP Index