Met Office

How accurate are we?

We have an open and transparent policy on how we verify the accuracy of our forecasts.

Verification involves comparing our forecasts against relevant observations to determine how accurate they are. Verification therefore underpins the Forecast Accuracy BPM which is set by government. These BPMs are part of our ongoing long-term commitment to improving the accuracy of our forecasts to the public. We will do this by reaching accuracy targets set for:

  • Probability of precipitation forecasts, for the next day and the day after, for a set of UK Met Office observing sites.
  • Temperature forecasts, for the next day and the day after, were assessed at the same sites as the probability of precipitation forecasts. This BPM is not being used for this financial year.
  • The forecasting skill of our Global and UK Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) computer models.
Target 2011/12Value at February 2012Target achieved 2010/11
UK Index118.8120.2Yes
Global Index145.4144.9Yes
UK Temperature------Yes
UK Rainfall0.2790.269No
Last Updated: 2 April 2012