Verification

Verification provides robust, relevant, useful and understandable metrics and advice on the end-to-end performance of our forecast system.

Continual monitoring of the end-to-end forecast production system is essential. "End-to-end" means that each stage of the forecast production process is considered, to understand where post-processing adds value.  Forecasts are compared against a variety of observations, from standard observing sites to remotely-sensed observations  (e.g. radar, satellite). To do this both area-based and station-based systems are required, and these systems need to change and evolve, just like the models that they evaluate. The team is responsible for the upkeep and development of these systems.

Quality control of observations forms an integral part of activities. Many observations are totally automated and instruments are subject to malfunctions. From a statistical perspective erroneous observations will lead to misleading results. New observation types are also becoming available all the time, especially satellite-based observations. Often these new observation types need specialised handling and new methods. They need to be assessed as to whether they are fit for purpose. The team provides support to the model development groups in terms of diagnostics for new forecast types e.g. dust and air quality.

Key Aims

  • to develop and maintain operational verification systems.

  • to monitor the forecasting system.

  • to help model developers understand model forecast behaviour.

  • to monitor observations quality and assess new observation types and their usefulness.

  • to develop new, novel methods for assessing forecasts.

Current Projects

  • Verification system upgrades and renewal.

  • Forecast Monitoring: Continuous monitoring is essential for diagnosing problems.

  • Developing novel tools for understanding the behaviour of probabilistic forecasts.

  • Assessing satellite observation types for verification use.

Last updated: 15 April 2014