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How we create weather forecasts

For decades the Met Office has been respected world-wide for the quality of its weather forecasts. Over the years, the techniques we use have changed dramatically. Modern weather forecasting applies scientific knowledge to predict future atmospheric conditions across the globe from observations of the current state, made from land, at sea, in the air, and from space.

Creating forecasts is a complex process which is constantly being updated and involves the application of technology and detailed meteorological knowledge of how the atmosphere, the Earth's surface and oceans work. We are increasingly forecasting further ahead, extending our forecasts from hours ahead to weeks and months.

First steps

Creating an accurate simulation of the atmosphere, oceans and land surface to predict the weather. Collecting observations and assimilating them into the forecast model.

Hours ahead: 0-24 hours

How we produce the weather forecast which will tell you what it will be like in a few hours time.

Days ahead: 1-14 days

How we produce the weather forecast for the next few days.

Months to years ahead

How do we know whether spring will be drier than normal?