Creating forecasts for hours ahead

At short time ranges a higher level of detail can be forecast with more reliability. The forecasting of the weather in the 0- to 6-hour time frame is often referred to as nowcasting

Traditionally, numerical computer models have been poor at forecasting thunderstorms and other small-scale details. Therefore, the human forecaster has had an advantage over computer NWP models when it comes to forecasting small- (meso-) scale features. The forecaster is able to compare a model field against actual observations and respond quickly and amend a forecast, should the situation warrant it. Rainfall radar observations are very useful in this time frame, and post-processing is used to make very short-range predictions.

Find out more about mesoscale modelling

More than six hours ahead, numerical model forecasts gain an advantage over other forecasting techniques. Ongoing research at the Met Office, to develop the next generation high-resolution numerical weather prediction system over the UK, should eventually allow numerical model forecasts to become the dominant nowcasting tool as the model's ability to forecast thunderstorms and small-scale features dramatically improves.

Find out more about nowcasting

National Severe Weather Warning Service

The Met Office has a responsibility to provide warnings of severe weather under the National Severe Weather Warning Service. Nowcasting is used to decide when a Flash warning, which indicates a high confidence of severe weather occurring in the next few hours, needs to be issued. Many forecasts are provided to our customers in this time range.

Information about creating weather forecasts more than 24 hours ahead