Decadal forecasts (experimental)

Decadal predictions refer to ‘near-term’ climate predictions, from years to several decades ahead. They are derived from climate models which include man-made influences on the climate system. They also include information on the current state of the climate — unlike longer-term (centennial) predictions — allowing variations due to natural causes to be better represented.

In the near term, changes associated with natural variability and changes due to man-made influences are expected, in places, to be of similar magnitude, making it essential to represent both in climate predictions for decadal timescales. The design of decadal prediction systems makes them an ideal tool for the purpose.

Decadal predictions are still experimental. At this early stage in their development technical issues may limit their accuracy at regional scales. Because regional skill varies across the globe, expert advice is needed to assess the reliability of predictions for specific applications.