Our forecast methods

Our methods

We use global forecasting models and statistical methods. Seasonal trends affect large geographic areas, so our forecast for the UK is in the context of Europe as a whole.

More about how we crunch the numbers and calculate our forecasts

Background

Spring, in this context, is defined as the months of March, April and May. Spring last year was warmer and wetter than 1971-2000 averages, with mean UK temperatures of 8.1 °C (0.8 °C above average) and 246.6 mm of rain (106% of the average).