Our forecast methods

Our methods

We use global forecasting models and statistical methods. Seasonal trends affect large geographic areas, so our forecast for the UK is in the context of Europe as a whole.

More about how we crunch the numbers and calculate our forecasts

Background

Summer, in this context, is defined as the months of June, July and August. Summer last year was warmer than 1971–2000 averages, with mean UK temperatures of 14.4 °C (0.4 °C above average). Summer last year was wetter than average, with 327.3 mm of rain (144% of the average) and was the 8th wettest since 1914.