Early indications for Winter 2009/10

Rainfall

Signals for precipitation slightly favour near or above average rainfall over much of northern Europe, including the UK.

What do we mean by average rainfall?

We base our average rainfall on measurements over the whole season for the years 1971-2000. The UK average for December to February is 332 mm.

Temperature

Preliminary indications continue to suggest that winter temperatures are likely to be near or above average over much of Europe including the UK. Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder than last year for the UK, but there is still a 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter.

What do we mean by average temperature?

As you would expect, temperatures can vary quite widely over the winter. So we take an average for the whole season and measure against that. The UK average for December to February from 1971-2000 is 3.7 °C.