Our forecast methods

Our methods

We use global forecasting models and statistical methods. Seasonal trends affect large geographic areas, so our forecast for the UK is in the context of Europe as a whole.

More about how we crunch the numbers and calculate our forecasts

Background

Winter, in this context, is defined as the months of December, January and February – although it is recognised that winter weather can extend beyond this period, especially in northern Britain. Winter last year was colder than the 1971-2000 average, with a mean UK temperature of 3.2 °C (0.5 °C below average). Winter last year was drier than average, with 260 mm of rain (78% of the average).