Risk Modelling

Catastrophe model assumptions and output are constantly under scrutiny, both internally and by regulators

Specialist hazard analysis is increasingly used to check for model bias, to provide source data for open modelling platforms or simply to add richness to the risk picture.

The Met Office has developed the Historical Euro Windstorm Catalogue for model validation. This data set of more than 6,000 historical footprints and tracks helps to model the location and impact of different extreme events on the portfolio. Users can reconcile historic losses against real storms such as Daria (1990) or Tini (2014) as a check on catastrophe model output, or use multiple storms to derive vulnerability curves.

Analysis of the 50 most intense historical storms is available at 25-km resolution (XWS catalogue) free of charge. The full Euro Windstorm Historical Catalogue downscaled to 4km resolution is commercially available, and can be delivered as raw model output. Euro Windstorm Historical Catalogue Euro Windstorm Historical Catalogue (PDF, 935 kB)

For more information, please contact the team on 01392 885680 or peril@metoffice.gov.uk

Windstorm footprint of the 1987 Great Storm

Last updated: 9 November 2015

    Share this: