Professional development programme
Advanced Forecasting Course (AFC)
Who is it for?
The Advanced Forecasting Course is for those who have already received formal meteorological and forecaster training (successfully completed the Forecaster Foundation Training Programme or equivalent) and subsequently been operating as an independent forecaster for a period of two to three years. It is particularly suitable for staff who may be moving to a position of responsibility within a forecasting team.
What is the aim of the course?
The Advanced Forecasting Course will equip the student with the necessary skills and knowledge to be able to operate effectively as a forecaster at a senior level.
What will students learn?
By the end of the Advanced Forecasting Course the successful trainee will be able to:
- demonstrate an enhanced understanding of development theory;
- demonstrate an understanding of advanced synoptic conceptual models;
- produce forecasts in the absence of Operations Centre guidance;
- demonstrate a good understanding of ensemble forecasting methods, their use in medium-range range forecasting and their impacts on customer operations;
- demonstrate a clear understanding of the limitations of the forecasts you produce and the appropriate level of confidence to communicate within those forecasts;
- assess the impacts of any issued forecast on the customer, especially in severe weather situations;
- assess and manage risks in a forecasting context including knowing when to make an exception to the established procedures;
- plan and organise the production and prioritisation of forecasts within a team;
- have a general understanding of major relevant environmental
issues beyond forecasting, notably climate change and oceanography.
What does the course cover?
The Advanced Forecasting Course builds on operational forecasting experience and provides additional meteorological knowledge, analytical skills, and applied management skills to help make the transition to the role of a senior forecaster.
The meteorological content of the course enables the student to develop a deeper understanding of — and ability to utilise — the meteorology which underpins synoptic-scale forecasting. Techniques for medium-range forecasting, especially the use of ensembles, are explored. Strategies for forecasting in the absence of central guidance are developed, and the limitations of forecasts are examined.
Since the role of a senior forecaster will frequently involve a greater level of responsibility in decision-making, the course also covers management skills applied to the forecasting context. Key areas covered are appreciation of the impacts of forecasts on the customer, analysis and management of risks, dealing with severe weather, and managing the production of forecasts in a team context.
There may also be an expectation on a senior forecaster to have a good understanding of issues relating to meteorology beyond those used in the forecasting context. The most pertinent of these are climate change and oceanography, and so the course also covers the principal scientific issues in these areas and topics of current debate.
Practical work and application to real forecasting situations is integral to all parts of the course.
What is the course duration?
The Advanced Forecasting Course is a 10-day residential course.
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